Update on Nigerian Inventors, their Inventions, Challenges and Opportunities

 

Update on Nigerian Inventors, their Inventions, Challenges and Opportunities

"Necessity is the mother of invention" is a popular maxim used for describing the resultant effect of a difficult situation. Nigerian situation has been difficult for quite some years now and the positive outcomes of this rather unpalatable condition are the creativity, ingenuity and invention brought out by Nigerians to survive the condition. Ordinarily, Nigerians are gifted with above average level of ingenuity, hard work and perseverance, when added to the prevailing difficult situation the result is multitude of inventors. Thus, in the last 10 years, Nigeria has produced more than 100 inventors of all kind of devices or innovations to address identifiable problems in the society. Some of these inventors were accorded recognition from local to international level while others are yet to be so recognized.  

Invention is a creative process. It is certainly a vocation of first class mind; a product of imagination that allows one to see beyond what is known and norms. Seeing a new possibility, identifying a new horizon, meeting a new situation connection, or relationship can often spark up the process of invention. As written in Wikipedia "Inventive thinking frequently involves combining concepts or elements from different realms that would not normally be put together". Sometimes inventors disregard the boundaries between distinctly separate territories or fields. Several concepts may be considered when thinking about invention; re-envision, insight, exploration and improvement are few of such concepts bogging down the mind of inventor for successful invention. Inventors often think of the unthinkable, imagine the unimaginable perceive the unperceivable. The world is becoming a better place by the day as a result of the relentless efforts of inventors in our society.  

Generally, from the earliest stone tools of the Paleolithic era to the 21st century with its latest digital advances, human inventions have shaped civilizations and transformed life on earth. The world of invention is dynamic; expectations and capabilities evolve with every step forward, and each new generation brings its own set of innovative thinkers. Nigeria, with an estimated population of over 200 million people is blessed with innovative brains and creative minds between both the educated and non - formal educated people across the nation. Who are these inventors and what have they invented for us to recognize them? What are their challenges and opportunities to the nation?

Four years ago, precisely between the month of June and July 2016, this column serialized five articles titled “Recognizing Nigerian Inventors: Challenges and Opportunities”. The articles presented various technological inventions made by some prominent Nigerians in the country and in diaspora.  Nigerian inventors have made impacts on all spheres of human endeavors. Some of the inventions received global recognition and accolades, elevated the image of the nation to most glorious level that made many of us proud as Nigerians.  The articles couldn’t list all the inventors and x-ray their inventions. However, few of the celebrated ones were catalogued as source of inspiration to the young ones while analyzing the opportunities presented by each invention. 

In the article, names of renowned Nigerian inventors were mentioned. One of such names was that of Emmanuel Okekunle from Jos who was then a 24-year-old senior secondary school graduate. Okekunle invented through improvisation a rechargeable lamp, fan, emergency alarm, electric waste bin that converts waste to ashes, and an aquarium, among other things. Another name was that of Saheed Adepoju, the Co-founder of Encipher Limited, a Nigerian-based technology company who unveiled the first android-powered tablet into Nigeria in April 2010. Adepoju named his android tablet “INYE-1”, a 7-inch resistive screen tablet. It runs on android 2.1 and allows users to connect to the Internet using its inbuilt Wi-Fi card and use an external 3G modem from GSM networks. A year after, he unveiled INYE-2 is an 8-inch capacitive screen Tablet that offers over eight hours battery life. ANYE-2 allows users to connect to other USB devices. 

Another name was that of Seyi Oyesola, a trained medical doctor who invented CompactOR, popularly known as “Hospital in a Box”, a solar-powered life-saving operating room, which can be transported to remote areas of Africa and set up within minutes. It is a portable medical system that contains anesthetic and surgical equipment. Similar to Oyesola’s invention was the invention of “Emergency Auto Transfusion System (EAT-SET)” invented by Col. Oviemo Ovadje (Rtd), he is a Nigerian medical Doctor. EAT-SET is an effective, low-cost and affordable blood auto-transfusion mechanism that saves patients especially in developing countries. By 2013, the EAT-SET was patented in 13 countries where they were deployed for medical services. The United Nation Development Program (UNDP) and the government of Nigeria funded the EAT-SET Project, with the World Health Organization (WHO) acting as the executing agency and providing assistance in the coordination of the project. 

“Pot-in-pot refrigerator” or “zeer” was another prominent invention, which was reported. Mohammed Bah Abbah was the inventor of this indigenous technology “zeer”, which is a refrigerating device that does not use electricity. This technology is most suitable for people in rural areas, who want have cold water during hot season. Mohammed Bah Abbah won a $75,000 “Rolex Award of Enterprise” for the invention. He used the award prize and massively produced and distributed his invention in 11 northern states in Nigeria. 

One globally acknowledged inventor mentioned was Ume Ifeanyi Charles. He is American based Nigerian, credited with five famous inventions patented in America among others. There are:

• Method and Apparatus for Measuring Thermally Induced Warpage in Printed Wiring Boards Using Shadow Moir, which was patented in USA with United States Patent No. 5601364, Feb. 11,1997;

• Method and Apparatus for Measuring Thermal Warpage Using Projection Moir, patented in USA with United States Patent No. 6564166 B1, May 13, 2003;

• Object Inspection Method and System, equally patented in USA with United States Patent No. 6747268, June 8, 2004;

• Inspection System and Methods, United States Patent No. 7492449,February 17, 2009;

• Ultrasound Systems and Method for Measuring Weld Penetration Depth in Real Time and Off Line, United States Patent No. 7762136, July 27, 2010. 

Thus, all the five inventions were patented at the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). Charles is a professor at Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia. He is a recipient of the Donald P. Eckman Education Award in recognition of his contributions towards education of mechatronics throughout the world. In 2010, he was also awarded the Electronics and Photonic Packaging Division (EPPD) Excellence in Mechanics Award. 

Few other Nigerian inventors whose works are internationally acknowledged were similarly mentioned. In this category, we have Cyprian Emeka Uzoh. He holds more than 126 United States issued patents and over 160 patents worldwide in semiconductor technology, including U.S. Patent No. 6709562, “method of making electroplated interconnection structures on integrated circuit chips”. This spectacular feat earned him the inventor of the year award in 2006 from the New York Intellectual Property Association. Yet another Nigerian born inventor is Brino Gilbert. He is acknowledged to be the inventor of the "Counter Collision Gadget (CCG)". CCG is device with the capacity to prevent accidents on the road, air, sea and rail. The invention earned him many awards including a bronze medal in the Aerospace/Aeronautics category at the May 2003 edition of the Invention and New Product Exposition (INPEX) in the United States. He also received a silver medal in the manufacturing category and a trophy for being the best invention from Africa in the continental category. His vision is to make CCG exportable to many countries of the world.

These eight Nigerian born inventors were among the multitude presented in my five articles published in 2016 and can all be accessed via my blog (www.breakthroughwithmkothman.blogspot.com). Now what are the updates on the Nigerian born inventors within the country and in diaspora? What are the challenges preventing Nigeria benefiting from the toils of these special Nigerians? To be continued next week.    

2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria IV

Food Security: 2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria IV

NiMet predictions cover other climate variables in addition to the rainfall. Temperature variation across the country was another parameter predicted by NiMet. The predictions for day and night temperatures were similarly presented. Alongside the temperature predictions were predictions of incidences of Malaria and Meningitis in several towns across the nation. On temperature prediction in 2020, greater parts of the country were generally predicted to experience warmer temperature in some months of the year 2020. What are the variations and increases of temperature in several towns? What are the implications for these predictions? What is the mitigation strategy for the farmers in the affected areas?

These questions were posed at the closing paragraph of the last part of this piece. Temperature increase or decrease has both economic and health implications to the nation. Night and day temperatures were predicted for many towns. The prediction indicate that many areas will experience normal temperature for both night day time. However, cooler than normal night temperatures are likely over Jalingo and surrounding areas in Taraba. Similarly, in the month of February, the prediction indicates cooler than normal cases in south western parts of the FCT (Abaji, Kwali and Gwagwalada areas), South western parts of Taraba, Eastern and western parts of Benue, parts of Cross River, Kogi, Enugu, Delta, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Osun, Ogun and Oyo. In the same month of February 2020, the nighttime temperature forecast is predicted warmer-than-normal conditions are predicted in some parts of northwest, northeast, few areas in the south such as Shaki and Ogoja.

In the Month of March 2020, the temperature condition will vary for many areas. In areas around Katsina, Kano, Nguru, Dutse, Potiskum, Maiduguri, Gombe, Yola, Jalingo, Bauchi, Zaria and Ikeja will experience slightly warmer-than-normal maximum temperature conditions in the daytime.

The daytime temperature variation in the month of April 2020 divides the country into three with the prediction in the north indicating warmer than normal temperature. Thus, the entire far north and Niger state in the north central will experience higher daytime temperature than normal. The southern part of the country will experience normal temperature conditions with the exception of areas around Anambra, Imo, Abia, Rivers, Kogi and parts of Lagos states. These areas are likely to experience cooler day temperatures. Similar pattern is also predicted for the nighttime temperature, which will be warmer than normal in the north and normal temperature conditions in the south with exceptions of pocket of areas that will be cooler than normal temperature. These pocket areas are parts of Oyo, Niger, Ondo and Ekiti States that are likely to experience cooler than normal conditions in April 2020.

Rise in temperature has serious implication to the people. Warmer temperatures can also lead to a chain reaction of other changes around the world. That's because increasing air temperature also affects the oceans, weather patterns, snow and ice, and plants and animals. The warmer it gets, the more severe the impacts on people and the environment. Globally, one degree Celsius increase in temperature can cause estimate deaths of at least 30,000 people but may decrease the winter mortality in Northern Europe and US. This small temperature rise may not directly be responsible for the deaths but may cause diseases. Malaria is one of such diseases, which air temperature and other environmental factors favour its emergence. What is the NiMet prediction on the prevalence of Malaria in the country?  

According to the prediction for the months of February and March 2020, there should be high vigilance for malaria in Akwa Ibom, Cross rivers, Bayela, Abia, Lagos, River states, and parts of Delta state. However, moderate vigilance is required over Abuja, Nassarawa, Benue, Kogi, Anambra, Enugu, Osun, Ekiti, Oyo sates, parts of Niger and Kebbi states. Similarly, in the month of April 2020, there should be high vigilance of Malaria in the coast and delter regions of the south as well as inland areas including Taraba, Benue and Kogi states.

The incidence of cerebrospinal meningitis was also predicted. Meningitis is another disease likely to occur as a result of temperature rise. Dust, wind and humidity are conditions favorable for the emergence of meningitis. Between the month of February and April 2020, NiMet SRP advised for high vigilance to checkmate likely incidence of Meningitis in some areas within Sokoto, Zamfara, Borno, Yobe, parts of Gombe, Bauchi, Jigawa, Katsina Kogi, Kwara and Benue states. What are the socio-economic implications of the 2020 NiMet SRP to the nation?

The SRP predicted the rainy season of 2020 to be “near-normal” to earlier than “normal” with near “normal rainfall amount” in most parts of the country. The predictions have serious implications to critical sectors that influence national economy and livelihood of Nigerians. Agriculture is the first among these important sectors. To mitigate the effects of seasonal changes in 2020, farmers are advised to avoid planting during pre-onset period and they should take advantage of this period to make land preparation, credit sourcing and inputs procurement. Farmers are advised to adopt risk management techniques such as taking of agricultural Insurance. Use weather and climate information throughout the agricultural value chain are strongly recommended to farmers. NiMet made very important recommendation “governments at all levels are advised to embark on awareness and sensitization of farmers and other stakeholders on Climate Smart Agricultural (CSA) practices such as on-farm water harvesting structures, soil and water conservation practices, land preparation. These practices will improve productivity, build resilience and reduce emission. The use of drought, stress tolerant seed varieties and early-maturing varieties are strongly recommended to areas expected to have significant change of rainy season.

On poultry production, the predicted warmer than normal temperatures from January to April over the northern states will affect poultry feed conversion ratio, shell quality and egg weight in layers may likely be affected. Therefore, heat stress prevention strategies and improving the general environmental conditions will go a long way in boosting poultry productivity in 2020. Similarly, the predicted warmer than normal temperatures across the country is likely to affect the feed intake, milk production, and reproductive efficiency of the ruminants such as cattle, sheep and goat.

Electrical Power sector is another critical area, which receives direct impact from predicted high temperatures and low rainfall amounts. Power generation, transmission and distribution could be affected by onset, cessation and length of the rainy season. The effects range from uprooting of transmission/distribution poles due to strong storms to lower water level in the hydro-generating stations that result in poor power generation, transmission and distribution. Hence, NiMet recommended, “use of renewable energy such as solar, gas turbine and windmills as alternatives to Hydroelectricity generation”. These areas have high potential for the country and should thus, be explored and exploited.

Transportation sector is another area of concern likely to be affected by the NiMet Predictions. Road transport, aviation, rail and marine are likely to be directly or indirectly influenced by the 2020 SRP. High temperature, rainstorms and violent winds, which characterize the onset of rainfall period, can cause disruptions in road transport, damage road infrastructure, and complicate road maintenance. Poor visibility and heavy storms are characteristics of Nigerian tropical rainy season and greatly affect the aviation subsector.

In conclusion, NiMet has successfully discharge her important mandate of presenting the 2020 SRP to the public. The ball is now in the court of the stakeholders to effectively utilize the information available in the document titled “2020 seasonal rainfall prediction”. The recommendations made in the document are germane and very useful for prevention and mitigation of the adverse effects of weather in the face of current climate change. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Last note; for the nation to maximally benefits from NiMet’s wealth of services on dissemination of climate information and daily weather forecast to general public, there is strong need for synergy between NAERLS and NiMet. Both are public funded organizations; while NAERLS specializes in information packaging and dissemination in most efficient way, NiMet specializes in climate information generation and collation. Thus, their combined effort to serve the nation is highly desirable at this critical period of climate change.  

2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria III

Food Security: 2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria III

As discussed in the second part of this article, the 2020 NiMet predictions covered rainfall onset, cession, amount and length of growing season. The predictions also covered temperature, dry spell, incidences of malaria, and cerebrospinal meningitis in the selected towns across the nation. On the rainfall pattern in the country, generally, the 2020 seasonal year will be a near-normal rainfall with a pattern oscillating between warm and cold phases in most parts of the country.  Thus, a near-normal length of season with above normal rainfall to near normal amounts will be experienced in 2020 across the nation. However, NiMet quickly warned the public of the false onset of rainfall, “Before the full establishment of the onset of the planting season over the various ecological zones, a couple of rainfall events are expected to occur which could be enormous and tend to give a false start of the season. Such rainfall events are not uncommon, however, their frequency seems to be on the rise”.

Explicitly, NiMet made specific predictions for different places; the report indicated the 24^th of February 2020 as the earliest (rainfall) onset date around coast and the creeks of the south-south states. This onset date from the coast is expected to change gradually and moving continuously northwards until the whole countries is covered with areas around Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno states likely have their onset from the 2^nd of June 2020. This means that the country’s onset of rainfall dates will range between 24^th February and 2^nd June 2020. The prediction of 24^th February is about two weeks earlier than 2019 prediction which stated “The earliest onset is predicted to be around 7^th March in the coastal and south-south towns”.

On the cessation of the 2020 rainy season, NiMet predicted the earliest cessation date to be 26^th September 2020 beginning from towns around Katsina and the northern part of Sokoto. Similar to rainfall onset, the cessation of rainfall will gradually move southward to over the whole country by the date of 28^th December 2020 over the Niger-Delta region. Generally, Cessation dates in other parts of the North are expected to be in October through 5^th November extending to 15^th November in Gombe, Jos and Kaduna. In the Central and inland parts of the South, cessation dates are expected in November while the South-east, Lagos and the Niger-Delta are to have cessation dates in December. Some places are predicted to have normal cessation of rainfall season, while other places will have cessation earlier than normal and few others will have cessation slightly longer than normal. Places around Katsina, Jigawa, Plateau, Kogi and Ondo are predicted to have their rainfall cessations dates earlier than normal. Reversely, some places in Osun state, parts of Lagos and Ekiti states are predicted to have their cessation at later dates than normal. The chances of occurrence of earlier and later cessation dates are relatively modest.

Part of the SRP made was the prediction for the length of the growing season or the rainy season in the year 2020. The rainy season period in days is predicted to vary from the minimum of 110 days to maximum of 280 days. About 110 days of rainy season will be experienced at the towns within the boundary of Nigeria, Niger and Chad republics located in the northern part of the country. The towns in many places around the Atlantic Ocean in the south will receive rainfall within a period of 300 days in the year, 2020. Thus, the predicted rainy season days span from 110 to 160 days in the Sahelian region of the north. As we progress southwards, rainy season period increases from 160 to 200 days for some towns in Plateau, Niger and Adamawa states. The inland cities of the south such as Enugu, Onisha, Ekiti, and Ibadan will expect a growing season between 210 and 280 days. The report notified farmers in Abuja, Kogi, and Makurdi to expect the length of season within a range from 200 to 250 days. The coastal areas are predicted to experience long rainy season that may likely extend to 310 days. However, the growing pattern throughout the season is not expected to vary much from the normal across the country in recent years. The variation expected in the length of growing season for year 2020 is likely to affect a large section of the north-west where places like Sokoto, Kebbi, Gusau, Kaduna, Zaria and Kano are possibly going to experience an extended length of growing season which may extend beyond 7 days. In the central states, Abuja and Plateau could also experience an extended length of growing season. However, Uyo in Akwa Ibom state reflects a slight reduction in length of growing season but this signal will be quite insignificant and may not affect cropping season.

The rainfall amount in millimeters for several places was part of the 2020 SRP that NiMet presented to the public. The country is predicted to receive rainfall amounts ranging from 400 mm in the north to over 3000 mm in the south. Places located in the extreme northern states of the country such as Sokoto, Katsina, Yobe and Borno are expected to have the least rainfall amounts within the range from 400 to 800 mm. Rainfall amounts in the range from 800 to 1200 mm have been predicted for places around Yelwa, Zaria, Dutse, Gombe and Yola. The central cities comprising Abuja, Lafia, Jos, Benue and most southwestern states are expected to have between 1200 and 1600 mm. Places along the coastline of the country such as Delta, Port Harcourt, Benin, Calabar and Uyo are expected to have total rainfall amounts exceeding 2400 mm. However, places around Shaki, Iseyin, Abeokuta and Katsina are expected to have below normal rainfall. Reversely, above normal rainfall is expected in few places across the nation such as around Kebbi, Kaduna, Kano and Uyo.

Furthermore, the 2020 SRP contains “dry spell” prediction in selected towns across the nation. Dry spell is described as a situation when rain cease to occur over a short period of time in days after crops establishment and thus, causing the crops to wilt. The term dry spell is commonly used by agriculturalists. The prediction shows that several states in the northeast and northwest will experience dry spell of between ten and twenty one days in the month of June. The notable towns mentioned in the prediction to experience dry spell in the month of June are Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Borno in the month of June. This may last 10 to 21 days after the onset spilling into July. Moderate dry spell that may last 8 to 15 days is expected around Yelwa, Bida, Minna, Zaria, Funtua, Lafia, Bauchi, Abuja, Gombe and Yola in June 2020. In the year 2020, severe of effect of dry spell is expected over the coast of Lagos, Ijebu Ode, Ibadan, Akure, Shaki, Iseyin, Ilorin and Ado Ekiti. The length of days with relatively dry spells is expected to last between 10 to 25 days in places like Abeokuta, Osogbo, Shaki, Iseyin, and Ilorin with more than 50% chance of occurrence while the coast of Lagos, Ikeja, Ibadan, Ijebu Ode and Akure could have dry spells above 30 consecutive days in a worst case scenario. This is certainly a cause for concern and the farmers in the areas should prepare to mitigate the effects of the dry spell. The 2020 dry spell is likely to start as early as 18th of July in Abeokuta and as late as 4th of August along the coast of the southwest.

Temperature variation across the country was another parameter predicted by NiMet. The predictions for day and night temperatures were similarly presented. Alongside the temperature predictions were predictions of incidences of Malaria and Meningitis in several towns across the nation. On temperature prediction in 2020, greater parts of the country were generally predicted to experience warmer temperature in some months of the year 2020. What are the variations and increases of temperature in several towns? What are the implications for these predictions? What is the mitigation strategy for the farmers in the affected areas? To be concluded next week.

2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria II

https://leadership.ng/2020/02/14/food-security-2020-nimet-predictions-and-socio-economic-implications-in-nigeria-ii/?fbclid=IwAR0qX2bcRCT9Q1EbmOyAgQdPaaW32G7JJoDs0MmPrYT1NVodHLTIU3Z3N0M

Food Security: 2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria II

Questions posed at the last paragraph in the first part of this piece were; what are the NiMet 2020 predictions? How reliable are these predictions? Before then, what were the performances of 2019 SRP across the nation? The rainfalls of 2019 were spectacularly different in several parts of the country as the rainfalls were heavy and the wet season lasted beyond the normal period. Was NiMet able to foresee the changes? Were Nigerians fully informed of and prepared for the changes?

National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) in conjunction with twenty-one important stakeholders including NiMet conducted Agricultural Performance Survey (APS). APS is a research conducted to assess the performance of a farming season. The 2019 APS evaluated the wet (cropping) season in the month of August/September of the same year. The result of the APS on rainfall situation validated NiMet predictions in several areas and showed variations in few areas. Rainfall situation across the nation was a major finding of 2019 APS. Rainfall is an important and critical input to crops production during wet season. In fact, rainfall availability, occurrence, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution determine success or failure of a cropping season. APS Report indicates more rainfall in amount and frequency in 2019 compared to that of 2018 “most states recorded increase in rainfall in the Northeast and Northwest in 2019”, quoted from the report. This accounted for the greater harvest forecasts for the year; unfortunately, too, the heavy downpours and high numbers of rainy days led to nationwide floods and destruction of farmlands with worst hit in 15 states as at August 2019.  Furthermore, the report indicated “The heavy downpours and high numbers of rainy days led to nationwide floods and destruction of farmlands across the states”. The report added. “The flooding incidence affected all the 36 states with different degree of severity. About 70% of states in the Northwest and Southeast geopolitical regions were severely affected with collapse of several houses in both urban and rural areas. As at September 2019, incidences of floods reportedly destroyed three major crops; Maize, Rice Yam and Groundnut in Nasarawa, Kogi and Plateau states. Other towns affected were Doma, Lafia, Wamba, Ibaji LG, Lokoja, Idah, Jos, Pankshin, Kanke, Shendam, Qua'anpan, Langtang N.S, Mangu, Miang and Bassa. Several Crops and Farmlands, Poultry, Houses and Livestock were destroyed in many towns of Borno state such as Bayo, Konduga, Maiduguri, Jere and Mafa. Similarly, crops and residential areas were affected by flood in several towns of Bauchi state covering Dass, Bogoro Tafawa, Balewa, Alkaleri, Kirfi, Toro, Warji, Jamaare Zaki, Ganjuwa, Katagum, Damban and Misau. In the same vein, several Poultry farms, Aquaculture and crops area were destroyed in Lagos state that included Ibeju-Lekki, Ikorodu, Badagry and Agege towns. The multifaceted impacts of flooding on the larger economy are mainly on health, creative technology, transportation education, trade and investment, business and finance”. The 2019 APS report revealed that on the average, the flood incidences affected not less than 25 per cent of the crops grown, livestock and other properties in the aforementioned towns and villages across the nation. The report could not quantify in monetary term the worthiness of the destroyed properties by flood in 2019. Billions of Naira worth of properties were certainly lost due to flood during the 2019 season.  

While APS report presented the actual field experiences on rainfall across the nation, NiMet prediction provided expected rainfall amount, onset, length and end of rainy season. Now, what was the performance of NiMet 2019 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction? NiMet reported the overall average performance of 81 percent. This result accounts for the four areas of prediction; onset of rainy season (specific date), length (days), end of rainy season (date) and annual amount of rainfall (quantity). The aggregated averages of 2019 predictions performances across the 774 LGAs were 83, 85, 83 and 74 percent for onset of rainy season, the length, end of the season and amount of rainfall, respectively.  The performances were evaluated by comparison between the actual and predicted amounts. The variance was negative for under-prediction when the actual amount received is higher than predicted one. On the other hand, the variance is positive for over-prediction when actual amount received is lower than the predicted one.  NiMet presented the performances in map of Nigeria with shaded areas for under and over predictions. There were four maps; each representing one area of prediction – onset of rain, length of rainy season, end/cessation of rainy season and rainfall amount. Interestingly, more than 70 percent of the maps indicated under-prediction. Example for the onset, with the exception of few boarder towns in Sokoto, Ondo and Cross River states, all other areas across Nigeria received rainfall slightly earlier than dates NiMet predicted for the onsets. Similar trend was observed for the rainfall cessation, with exception of few towns in Borno, Yobe and northern Jigawa States, all other areas across the nation continued to received rainfalls beyond the NiMet predicted end of rainy season. What are the implications of the variances between the predicted and actual onset and end of rainy season?

Before answering this question, it is important to reflect the NiMet Prediction performances of 2018 SRP. In my 3-series article of 1^st to 15^th February 2019 with a similar title with this article, presentation of NiMet 2018 SRP was made. Part of the presentation was the precision of prediction for rainfall cessation, I wrote “On the rainfall cessation dates for the 2018 rainy season, most towns in the northwest like Katsina, Sokoto and areas surrounding the towns were predicted to experience early cessation of rainfall around 28^th September 2018. Southern coastal cities were predicted to receive their last rain of the year in December 2018. However, cessation of the growing season for majority of the towns in Nigeria was predicted to be normal with exception of Jos, Ubi, Uyo and Lagos that experienced early cession. NiMet achieved 91% and 89% precision in the predictions of rainfall and growing seasons cessation, respectively”. The performances of the 2018 predictions (91% and 89%) are slightly higher than 2019 predictions of 83% and 85%. Again On the 2018 annual rainfall amount, I stated, “NiMet achieved an average of 65% precision making the overall achievement of 2018 SRP to be 84%”. This is also higher than the overall 2019-prediction performance of 81%. These results reflect the 2019 predictions made in the month of February 2019 during the SRP public presentation. However, in the month of August 2019, NiMet concertedly adjusted or updated her predictions of rainfall amount and early cessation of rainfall that “the rain will be above normal and the season will extend beyond the predicted dates of rainfall cessation”. This information was little too late and several stakeholders were not aware of the update. In spite of the challenges of 2019 wet season caused by incidences of flood, the agricultural productivity was found to increase in 2019 compared to 2018 wet season as presented in the 2019 APS report.

Now back to the implications of the variances between the predicted and actual onset and end of rainy season. The implications are diverse with devastating effects on farming. Many cereal crops farmers in the affected areas experienced heavy post-harvest losses as a result of continuous rainfall after the crops were ripe and harvested. Crops growth and maturity are basically time-dependent process. Rainfall like other important farm inputs does not prolong age of crops but healthy growth and high yield. It is therefore imperative that NiMet has to strive hard to achieve higher prediction precision within the range from 95 to 100 percent. To achieve this feat, NiMet may be facing two major challenges. First, ability of NiMet to acquire (finance) and operate (capacity/skill) high sensitive and precision equipment to enable good weather prediction with high certainty across the country. Second, climate change is making the business of weather prediction arduous because of high volatility spatially and temporarily across the globe.     

Well, in spite of relatively low performance of 2019 predictions compared 2018, several stakeholders scored NiMet performance outstandingly high and thus, reinforced their confidence. NiMet has to work hard to improve her predictions to achieve 100% precision. Now, what is the content of 2020 SRP? To be continued next week.

    

2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria

Food Security: 2020 NiMet Predictions and Socio-economic Implications in Nigeria

https://leadership.ng/2020/02/07/food-security-2020-nimet-predictions-and-socio-economic-implications-in-nigeria/?fbclid=IwAR0wnNN8wL0dGBcfy1k1PVTKxFXz45YRR8ZnF_R-ybZEsCh7Cf8jDwhTkiM

A path of achieving Food security is a tricky and dodgy one for a developing country like Nigeria. The quantum of food required to provide the needed security is geometrically increasing parallel to the population’s exponential increase. Everyday the population figure changes progressively. How can we provide food security to our teeming Nigerian population that has an estimated average birth rate of 850 babies and death rate of 280 people in every hour? This indicates an hourly population increase of 570 people, 13,680 people per day and 3,611,520 per year. These figures are conservative because the World’s population clock provides yearly increase of Nigerian population as 5,000,428 people higher than 3.6 million quoted above (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/)

 Nigeria is majestically marching to become the third most populous country in the World in the year 2050 with an estimated population of 401 million people. Today, Nigeria is the 7^th most populous country in the world ranking after Brazil (6^th), Pakistan (5^th), Indonesia (4^th), USA (3^rd), India (2^nd) and China (1^st). Another vey frightening situation of the population in Nigeria is the demographic analysis on the national productivity or the so-called “Nigeria Dependency Ratio”. The age dependency ratio expresses the relationship between the "dependent population" (ages 0-15 and 65-plus, referred as "youth" and "elderly") and the "working age population" (ages 16-64). The groups, youth (43.49%) and elderly (2.74%) constitute 46.23% of the total population. This category of the population is economically less or even unproductive and depends entirely on the productivity of the remaining 53%.  

 With the demographic challenge of feeding additional extra mouths per minute, the arduous task of providing meal on every table in every household is daunting. It requires harnessing all efforts from all angles tangentially aimed at goal getting; achievement of food security. It is in this light that the NiMet’s annual “Season Rainfall Prediction (SRP)” is considered important. If this annual event, SRP is harnessed, synchronized and synergized with the efforts of National Agricultural Research and Extension Centers across the nation, food security will be achieved sooner than later. Beyond food security, SRP has serious socio-economic implications to the nation. First, what is food security?

Severally, this column has discussed food security issues in series of published articles in the past two years or so. In my article of Friday 1^st February 2019 on the SRP of 2019 (http://breakthroughwithmkothman.blogspot.com/2019/03/food-security-2019-nimet-predictions.html)

 I summarized the definition and understanding of food security. I stated Food security has more than 100 explicit and implied definitions because of the technical and policy issues involved in its definition. However, the definition has evolved over the years to contain the necessary issues as guidance for achieving the food security. The 1974 adopted definition of food security was “availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices”. In 1983, the definition was modified as “ensuring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food that they need”. 1986’s definition was “access of all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life”. The 1996 World Food Summit adopted a still more complex definition: “Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels is achieved when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. The latest adopted definition that encompasses the different aspects of food consumption, access; nutrition of household, community and nation is generally used. This definition states that “Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. This means that access to quantitative and qualitative food, of high nutritious values that can meet dietary needs of people, at all times have to be guaranteed in a nation for such a nation to achieve food security.  For a nation like Nigeria with an estimated 3% annual population increase means that the food availability must increase by more than 3% to attend an arduous task of a food secured nation. Thus, achieving food security requires excellent strategic planning for increased sustainable agricultural productivity across the nation. However, strategic planning requires timely and reliable information on climate generated through proven scientific methods. Generation, collation, analysis and dissemination of climate information are sole the responsibilities of NiMet, which are critical to achieving food security.

NiMet is a forerunner national agency mandated to generate information on climate and weather, analyze and use such information for prediction to support farmers, airliners and other interested stakeholders. NiMet predictions are increasingly becoming helpful in mitigating the effects of extreme weather conditions and avoidance of colossal losses of lives and properties. The import of NiMet predictions are better appreciated in view of devastating global warming and climatic change challenging the living condition of humanity. The effects of climate change on agriculture are diverse and tremendous. They include sharp changes in seasonal rainfall, temperature and humidity alongside increase in pest and disease populations, low crop yields and incomes to farmers. Climate change is directly responsible for wild diversity loss and ecosystem collapse with inconceivable consequences. 

NiMet has grown from relatively unknown agency to become a regular household name in Nigeria. On daily basis, tens of millions of Nigerians are glued to their television sets to listen to daily announcement of NiMet weather predictions across the major Nigerian cities and the rest of the world. The predictions that have become so useful to operators of the airliners, farmers, security agencies and several other Nigerians for the purpose of planning to avert losses and increase system efficiency. No doubt, NiMet is recording some marvellous achievements in discharging its mandates to the nation. This is in spite of its relative young age of 17 years in existence.

Historically, NIMET was established by an Act of the National Assembly – NIMET (Establishment) ACT 2003, enacted on 21st May 2003, and became effective on 19th June 2003 following Presidential assent. It has three core professional Departments, namely – Weather Forecasting Services, Applied Meteorological Services, and Research and Training (R&T). The support Directorates includes Engineering and Technical Services, Finance and Accounts, Administration and Supplies, and Legal Services, which also serve as Secretary to the Board.

The NiMet excellent prominence in service delivery can be credited to its leadership under Sani Mashi, an erudite professor of geography with vast experience. He was appointed as its Director General in January 2017. During his maiden media outing, he was quoted saying, “My vision for NiMet is clear; it is to make NiMet a world-class outfit. This is because the services we render are not just for Nigerians but also for the benefit of everybody anywhere in the world. When foreign airlines are coming into the country, they rely on us. So, we want to keep up the service and better it so that whenever they go up, or they enter Nigeria’s territorial airspace, they get the best type of information that any meteorological agency can give anywhere in the world… This way, whenever any country, especially those in the developing world – whether African, American or Asian – wants to develop their own meteorological agency, they will look at NiMet as their role model.” Since then, the agency has continued to fare well comparable to similar agencies all over the world thereby attracting global accolades. What are the NiMet 2020 predictions? How reliable are these predictions? Before then, what were the performances of 2019 SRP across the nation? The rainfalls of 2019 were spectacularly different in several parts of the country as the rainfalls were heavy and the wet season lasted beyond the normal period. Was NiMet able to foresee the changes? Were Nigerians fully informed of and prepared for the changes? To be continued next week  

International Space Station: Beehive Of Man’s Activities In Space II

International Space Station: Beehive Of Man’s Activities In Space II

The establishment of International Space Station (ISS) took 12 years with major support from five nations in addition eleven other nations who made different level of contributions. US President Reagan was the brain behind ISS who then conceived the idea of a relatively permanent space station in 1984 and directed NASA to build it. At that time, many thought of the idea as braggadocio of American leadership after her outstanding success of sending people to moon under the Apollo 11 project fifteen years earlier.  No one could imagine the critical role a permanent space station could play in human space exploration nearly four decades later. With American policy of consistency and leading role, the International Space Station became a reality and from November 2000 to date, the station has been continuously populated with scientists of different nationalities experimenting different theories and hypothesis.

As mentioned in the first part of this piece, ISS is the ninth space station to be inhabited by human crews, after the Soviet and Russian Salyut, Almaz and Mir stations as well as Skylab from the US.  The station is serviced by a variety of visiting spacecraft: the Russian Soyuz and Progress, the US Dragon and Cygnus, the Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle, and the European Automated Transfer Vehicle and the rest of other crafts coming and leaving the station continuously. ISS is in deed a beehive of human activities in space. Now, what are the successes achieved in ISS and the prospects as the world moves towards a target year of 2028? The lifespan of ISS was initially planned to operate only up to the year 2020, but in 2014 the US decided to extend its life to 2024. Since then Russia has proposed to extend further the life of the ISS to 2028, and the US space agency NASA seemed ready to accept this new extension. Prospectively, it may reach a target of 2030. On the feats recorded in ISS, NASA alone has catalogue of experiments, which will benefit from extension of the life of the ISS for a few more years. For example, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer, NASA’s particle physics detector, is researching “dark matter” using a setting that would not be possible on the Earth’s surface.

There are colossal achievements made in ISS by several nations from different continents of the world. First, ISS provides to U.S. and her partners an operational outpost in space, the most austere environment ever known in the history of humanity. Globally, ISS serves as a platform where more than 2,400 experiments have been conducted since it was first launched. ISS received more than 230 visitors from 18 countries in the last twenty years. In the August 2019 issue of online Journal “ Scientific America 175” Christian Zur wrote article, which stated; “The station's crew have logged over 1,300 extravehicular activity (EVA) hours on more than 217 spacewalks”.

Few years back, Julie Robinson, NASA Space Station program scientist presented ten top achievements of ISS at the 64th International Astronautical Congress in Beijing, China. Among the achievements were, the result of investigation the effects of the space environment on the human body during long duration spaceflight. There is a considerable loss of bone and muscle mass of the astronauts during space mission. Using ISS, Astronauts are now able to address the bone loss that has historically accompanied long periods of weightless.  Proper diet, including adequate amounts of vitamin D, and exercise are found to be the solution.  Resistive exercise, like weight lifting on the Earth, is a recent addition and is now helping to prevent a similar terrestrial ailment such as osteoporosis. Understanding the metabolic processes that lead to osteoporosis and developing the medications and therapies for prevention is a good feat.

Another accomplishment is using optical instruments on the space station to assess water quality in the world’s coastal bays. This was hitherto an impossible task due to large volume of water and area coverage. In addition to this feat, there are a significant number of instruments in Earth remote sensing and astrophysics that are providing new access to data for various services on earth. This makes ISS to be a significant platform for understanding of the Earth system and the universe

Another breakthrough is the study of Combustion engine in the space, the so-called “cold flame”. Some of the research findings revealed more efficient ways of fuel consumption in mechanical power generation engines using combustion system.

Again Studies in ISS have shown increased virulence of bacteria in space. The findings point to possible vaccines, perhaps one to combat salmonella, which is responsible for 15,000 hospitalizations and 400 deaths in the world annually. The activities in ISS are inspiring, mobilizing and teaching students across globe about the values of science, technology, engineering and math, or what famously referred as the “STEM fields”. This way the Space station crews and other activities have involved 63 million of the world’s students as at 2016 with additional 100s thousands from then to date. Among these ISS educational activities, over 43 million students came from 49 countries across the globe. These educational activities involved more than 28 million teachers located in different places within the 49 countries.

Another very important feat is research on “dark matter”, a substance that scientists are just beginning to understand. As a substance, “dark matter” is believed to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe and about a quarter of its total energy density. In fact, the universe is made up of matters. In ISS, there are series of studies of dark matter using the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer, an external observatory that was installed by space shuttle astronauts in 2011. No doubt, the results of these studies will substantially lead to discovery of mystery of space that is likely to advance the course of mankind.  

Studies on robot technology are ongoing in ISS. There are improvements in robotics accomplished with the station’s Canadian built robot arms that are leading to improvements in brain surgery techniques. Another ongoing medical trial is “Microgravity micro-encapsulation”. This is a scientific concept using the weightless environment to develop drugs that can attack specific tumors with chemotherapy.

The global coverage of satellites offers a unique, fact-based perspective that can help us overcome our greatest challenges. Information from these spacecraft can help us improve agricultural yields and protect habitat loss and stop deforestation. They discovered the hole in the ozone layer and their data today remains key to fighting climate change; and they’ve helped us to connect the world through Internet and communication, an intangible service for millions. Satellites in space have done much for us so far and, in the future, they will offer much more. With access to the Internet comes increased knowledge sharing, the benefits of the best doctors and teachers via tele-medicine and education, and greater communication.

In conclusion, ISS is presently serving many countries as a platform to make advancement in space technology and thus, different nationals are assiduously and harmoniously working in respective of their ideological lineage, religious or political differences. As we move deep into 21^st century, the economic, political and military powers will depend on technological superiority of a nation. Nations with less population and high technological advancement may have control over countries with large population as long as such countries lag behind technologically. The question is where is the place Africa particularly Nigeria in this global rat race?   Nigeria has all it takes to build a sound technology to key into the global competition of superiority. With more than 10 millions university graduates of science and technology and over 200 research and development centers, it is just a matter of political will, commitment and dedication on the part leaders and the nation to make a giant step towards technological advancement. President Buhari has a golden opportunity to kick-start this process. Time waits for nobody.        

International Space Station: Behive of Man’s Activities in Space

International Space Station: Behive of Man’s Activities in Space

I am still talking about space technology at the risk of boring my readers. To my thinking, Space technology is one of the most amazing wonders of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Satellite, a man-made structure hanging in space between 150 and 35,000 kilometers above the earth surface rotating around the earth while receiving and sending signals with amazing outcomes. These outcomes are so impactful to humanity positively thereby making lives comfortable and enjoyable. Imagine life today without GSM and Internet services.  The space technology is attempting to unravel the wonders of nature, the omnipotent perfect creation of the universe and the mysteries surrounding the space and its contents. As stated in my previous articles, there are classifications of satellites; Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites with a range of distance between 160 to 2,000km from the earth surface, Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites with a distance between 2,000 and 35,000Km and Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellites with a distance over 35,000 km from the earth surface. Among these satellites, the biggest and busiest and long lasting one is the International Space Station (ISS).

The International Space Station (ISS) is the largest man-made structure ever put into space since 1998. ISS was so large that it couldn’t be launched in its entirety at once. It was therefore sent in space in pieces, and then constructed while in orbit. The first ISS component was launched in 1998, with the first long-term residents arriving on 2^nd November 2000. Since then, the station has been continuously occupied by people up to date, which is about 22 years today. The weight of ISS is 450,000kg with a size of 108.51 meters by 73.15 meters, which is approximately equivalent to a football field. The ISS program is a joint project between five participating space agencies: NASA (United States), Roscosmos (Russia), JAXA (Japan), ESA (Europe), and CSA (Canada). The ownership and use of the space station are established by intergovernmental treaties and agreements. What are these five participating agencies?

NASA is an acronym of National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It is an independent agency of the United States Federal Government responsible for the civilian space program, as well as aeronautics and aerospace research. NASA was established in 1958 as an agency with distinct civilian orientation for peaceful scientific applications in space science and technology. Since its establishment, most US space exploration efforts have been led by NASA, including the Apollo Moon landing missions, the Skylab space station, and later the Space Shuttle. The agency is also responsible for the Launch Services Program, which provides oversight of launch operations and countdown management for un-crewed NASA launches. Since establishment, NASA is assiduously working to achieve her vision of discovering and expanding knowledge for the benefit of humanity.

The second is “Roscosmos”, a State Corporation for Space Activities, which was originally part of a Russian Federal Space Agency. It was saddled with responsibilities for a wide range and types of space flights and cosmonautics programs for the Russian Federation. The corporation evolved over the years and consolidated itself and became “the national state corporation” on 28 December 2015 through a presidential decree.

The third is “JAXA” (Japan), which is an acronym of "National Research and Development Agency on Aerospace Research and Development". It is the Japanese national aerospace and space agency. JAXA was formed on 1^st October 2003 through the merger of three previously independent organizations; Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), the National Aerospace Laboratory of Japan (NAL), and National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA). JAXA is responsible for research, technology development and launch of satellites into orbit. It is also involved in many more advanced missions such as asteroid exploration and possible human exploration of the Moon. Its motto or corporate slogan is “Explore to Realize”, which was made from previous slogan “Reaching for the skies, exploring space”.

ESA is an acronym of European Space Agency. ESA is an intergovernmental organization of 22 member states of European Union, dedicated to the exploration of space. The agency was established in 1975 with head office located in Paris, France. ESA has a worldwide staff of about 2,200 two years ago (2018) and had an annual budget of about €5.72 billion (~US$6.43 billion) in 2019. ESA's space flight program includes human spaceflight (mainly through participation in the International Space Station program); the launch and operation of un-crewed exploration missions to other planets and the Moon; Earth observation, science and telecommunication; designing launch vehicles; and maintaining a major spaceport, the Guiana Space Centre at Kourou, French Guiana. The main European launch vehicle Ariane 5 is operated through Arianespace with ESA sharing in the costs of launching and further developing this launch vehicle. The agency is also working with NASA to manufacture the Orion Spacecraft service module, that will fly on the Space Launch System.

Lastly, CSA (Canada) is an acronym of Canadian Space Agency, which is the national space agency of Canada. It was established by the Canadian Space Agency Act which received Royal Assent on May 10, 1990. The agency reports to the federal Minister of Innovation, Science, and Economic Development. The agency has headquarters located at the John H. Chapman Space Centre in Longueuil, Quebec. It also has offices in Ottawa, Ontario, at the David Florida Laboratory, and small liaison offices in Houston, Washington, D.C., and Paris. Canada has a famous history of being among the few countries that started space research immediately after the World II. In September 1962, Canada became the third country after USA and USSR to put an artificial satellite into space when it launched “Alouette 1” that studied the ionosphere. Alouette 1 was part of a joint U.S.- Canadian scientific program. Its purpose was to investigate the properties of the top of the ionosphere, and the dependence of those properties on geographical location, season, and time of day. In 1972, Canada became the first country in the world to establish its own domestic geostationary communication satellite network after launching Anik A-1 into space.

Since 1998, these five countries have been harmoniously working complementing each other to make the success of International Space Station (ISS) to what it is today. The result of this success is advancing space technology to a greater height in the last two decades. ISS is used in several areas of space research to study planetary, cosmic bodies and solar system. With estimated cost well exceeding $100 billion since the program started, ISS is the most expensive man-made object ever built in space.

The ISS is a low Earth orbit satellite maintaining an orbit at an average altitude of 400 kilometers above earth surface. ISS moves with a speed of 28,800 kilometer per hour thereby circling the Earth in roughly 92 minutes and completes 15.5 orbits per day. This ultra-hypersonic speed makes the ISS weightless while circling the Earth. Thus, astronauts working and living on the Station experience 16 sunrises and sunsets each day of 24 hours. This means that the people, mostly astronauts working in ISS experience night and day each one-and-half hour time making our 24-hour day equivalent to 16 days over there.

Specifically, ISS serves as a microgravity and space environment research laboratory in which crew members conduct experiments in biology, human biology, physics, astronomy, meteorology, and other fields. The station is suited for the testing of spacecraft systems and equipment required for missions to the Moon and Mars.  There are several activities by different people visiting and staying in ISS. It is the ninth space station to be inhabited by crews, following the Soviet and later Russian Salyut, Almaz, and Mir stations as well as Skylab from the US. The station is serviced by a variety of visiting spacecrafts: the Russian Soyuz and Progress, the US Dragon and Cygnus, the Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle, and formerly the European Automated Transfer Vehicle. What are the successes achieved in ISS and prospects as move towards 2030, the target year of the satellite? To be continued next week.